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This matchup is going to be a treat on Saturday night as two of the AFC's toughest teams link up in Indianapolis. It is an extremely evenly matched game between the Patriots and Colts, and a game between two teams that know how to force turnovers. The two squads rank first and second in forcing turnovers. The Patriots have nine takeaways in their last three contests, while the Colts have eight. Both of these offenses have proven that they can take care of the football this season, which will create an interesting dynamic tonight.
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This potential playoff preview opened Colts -2.5. The number has been frozen at -2.5 all week, which shows there is a good amount of money coming in on the Patriots in this one. That money is being bet on the Patriots for good reason. They have been one of the most balanced teams in the NFL all season long, wearing down their opponents with their stout defensive play and rushing attack.
The Patriots have allowed TDs on just 45% of their opponents trips inside its 20 yard line, which is a staggering statistic. They are allowing just 15 points per contest, which leads the NFL in scoring defense and has given up just 10 points a game during their current seven game winning streak.
The Colts play great defense as well, as they have allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their previous four games. However, the Patriots defense versus the Colts offense is going to be the deciding factor here. We can expect a very healthy dose of Jonathan Taylor tonight, who has been the best running back in the NFL this season. He will be the biggest test thus far for the Patriots run defense, which is ranked 18th overall.
This game is also going to come down to coaching, which makes me lean towards Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has reached back into the "Patriot Way" playbook, winning games with tough nosed defense and a solid rushing attack. The Colts have a losing record at home this season, while the Patriots are 6-0 on the road. I think the spot light will be too big for Carson Wentz, a quarterback that has not fully gained my full trust. I am going to bank on this Patriots machine to pump out another win here on the road Saturday night, improving their win streak to eight games.
Patriots ML +115
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